Prediction: Why 2025 will Be a Crucial Year for Most Churches
According to all the research I’ve done and what ‘church experts’ are saying, 2025 will make or break most existing churches. In choosing the word crucial, I mean needing urgent attention because 2025 is pivotal for the future. Whether a church declines or flourishes will hinge on how they handle the following challenges and opportunities
Crucial Challenges
The Smaller Pool to Fish in – The pool of potential church members is shrinking. According to US Census numbers, the population has been flat from 2010-2023, never exceeding 1% which is the margin of error. Without mass immigration, it would be greater decline. The picture is even bleaker in the Northeast and Midwest where population is declining. According to the US Census 19 states lost population. Only the Southeast increased with Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia — accounted for 93% of the nation’s 1.1% population growth.
The largest generation, the Baby Boomers (born 1945-1965) are rapidly aging out of our churches. For over three decades the Boomers have been the face of the American Church. The amount of people over 65 has grown 5x faster than the population with over 60 million being over 65 by the end of 2025. Unfortunately as people move into their 70s and 80s there is a greater attrition rate through death or illness.
Many former churchgoers have not returned to regular church attendance after the quarantine of 2020. Those who have returned, attend less regularly. The average church attendee has changed from attending twice a month to once every six weeks. This means poorer communication, less teaching, less people serving and an overall loss of momentum especially for church of 150 or less.
Financial Struggles will Increase – With fewer people attending, there is less giving. There is also the factor that (in general) the baby boomers are the largest givers. Many Churches won’t be able to pay a full-time salary. Thom Rainer of Church Answers states that approximately 15,000 churches won’t be able to pay a full-time salary as they decline. Less time for the pastor to focus on discipleship, less money for evangelism and advertising all exacerbate the situation.
Churches will go longer without a Pastor – Combining the two factors of shrinking finances and a smaller pool of people going into ministry, it will become more difficult to attract a Lead Pastor. In the last two years, I have given pulpit supply (preachers) and chaired search committees for two local churches. It took over a year for each one to find a lead pastor. In this situation, an Interim Pastor under the direction of an experienced minister such as myself is the best solution. We will talk more about that in the opportunities section.
Thousands of Churches will Close in 2025 – Most of us know that according to Barna research 7,500 churches closed in 2023. Thom Rainer thinks it can be as high as 15,000 in 2025! Whichever number you choose, 2025 will be a crucial year for you to ensure your church is not one of them!
How? Let’s look at the opportunities:
Crucial Opportunities
Every change, every challenge brings opportunity with it. Looking at the Crucial Challenges, here are the Crucial Opportunities that come from them.
More unchurched people are receptive – With the change in the age of our population, there has come an encouraging trend. Gen Z, young adults and teenagers born between 1997 and 2012, are exploring their faith. Most were not raised with any religion by their Gen X parents. (Only 28% of Gen X say they went to church in 2023.) According to Barna Research while this is happening, there is a large increase in the numbers of Millennials attending church services, up 39% attend monthly.
The opportunities are there to reach these generations. The Millennials (1981-1996) are 27-42 and are now experiencing parenthood. Parenting is one of the life transitions most likely to bring someone to church. A renewed focus on children’s ministry and parenting small groups are opportunities to attract them.
While Gen Z are between 12 and 27, they become the more they are searching for their faith. Largely not raised in church, they are exploring what they believe. They will give equal credence to Islam or Buddhism as the Gospel. Therefore, the opportunity lies in open, honest discussion about the merits of Christianity in safe spaces. While no one is intellectually converted to Christianity (The Holy Spirit draws them), we must position ourselves for them to ask questions while also allowing opportunities for them to encounter God’s power. Gen Z are more open to the supernatural. They have lived their whole lives with an information flood via the internet. They know there are unexplained things. Show them the power of God to change their lives.
**Crucial Opportunity to Work Together – **As we said, there will be fewer Full-Time Pastors and many churches closing in 2025. Rather than taking a defeatist attitude, look at this as a Crucial Opportunity to for us to work together. As long as I have been a Christian, there have been denominations and non-denominational fellowships that have tried to get local churches to work together. Necessity may finally bring unity and end competition.
As I said earlier, I have worked with several churches to help them through tough ministry transitions. As a pastoral leadership coach I’ve placed interim pastors, pulpit supply, taught church growth systems and organized outreaches where multiple churches work together. If you need assistance or just want to talk, lon@potentialcoaching.net. Coaching is the best way I know to quickly gain someone else’s experience and apply it to your church during this crucial year 2025.
The greatest opportunity is church mergers. While I’ve heard horror stories, when done right this is a very effective tool to exponentially reach more people for Christ. After merging the resulting is almost always greater than the sum of its parts. The church I was a staff member of was the result of three churches merging. Congregations of 80, 150 & 300 merged into a congregation of 450 but…it quickly grew to 700 people within three years. They are now a mega church of over 1,000 weekly. I’m not saying our goal should be to become a mega-church but the principle works for smaller congregations even better.
I have observed churches with an aging pastor merge with a younger congregation to have a great impact in their city. The experience and wisdom of the older pastor combining with the enthusiasm and faith for the future of the younger is a potent combination. Many times this is facilitated by the younger congregation not having a permanent building and the older congregation having established facilities but a declining attendance.
The last opportunity is to help churches that have no pastor. You may become an interim pastor bring life into the Sunday services. Denominations often have their ministers pastor two congregations rather than shut a church down. While these are temporary solutions they are opportunities for ministry and help churches through crucial times that may otherwise cause them to close.
Don’t let this crucial year catch you by surprise. I believe being a part of my coaching network will help. Contact me today to find our more.
Let me know your thoughts on the church in 2025 and the contents of this article in comments.